Drivers of Change

Drivers of Change

The PFLCC 2014 scenarios were collaboratively designed by the PFLCC Scenario and Science Teams in consultation with the PFLCC Steering Committee.  In constrast to more general scenario planning efforts, we concentrated on the effect of conservation strategies under challenging conditions.  

Because our focus was on conservation mechanisms and policies and resources were limited, we elected to treat climate change and population as constants (see our prior Florida scenarios for exampes of variations in these dimensions).

We used the latest IPCC RCP8.5 climate change scenario and University of Florida's median growth projection.  Thus all scenarios simulate a climate tragectory following the US Army Core of Engineers guidance document curve III ("high") sea level rise curve, and a 2060 Florida population of 31 million residents.  (For more details, see the individual Drivers pages)

This led to an overall scenario architecture which can be summarized as follows:

PFLCC 2014 Scenario Architecture 

 

PFLCC 2014 Scenario Assumptions