Urban development patterns are influenced by both market forces and regulatory policies. Market forces include the availability of jobs and prevailing wages. These influence the quantity and character of housing stock, for example. Regulatory policies include general land use planning factors such as zoning, and a variety of special-purpose constraints, such as protections for wetlands or municipal water supply areas.
We simulated two discrete kinds of urban development patterns and related policies. Under "business as usual" we tried to simulate the current planning and zoning environment up until 2040, and then likely demand-driven changes to that environment by 2060. This is a necessariliy imperfect process, since Florida requires that counties create 20-year "Future Land Use" plans in GIS format, but does not specify a standard classification. Also, municpal zoning is not standardized at any level, and therefore could not be considered.
The second kind of development pattern simulated was termed "proactive." Under this pattern, we simulated a modest densification of development in areas identified by counties as being suitable. We also constrained urban development by rule from the statewide highest conservation priority areas. We used the Univeristy of Florida's "CLIP" priority 1 areas as a mask.