Scenario 2: Proactive

Proactive Development Policies with Private Conservation

Scenario 2 simulates the effect of 'proactive' changes in both land use and conservation policy. A modest increase in urban densities is simulated where county planners have identified potential transit-oriented development zones. Green infrastructure identified as UF CLIP 3.0's top priority is systematically protected. Conservation uses the same prioritization as scenario 1, but with a modest increase in spatial extent thanks to a shift to more private lands-oriented conservation mechanisms.

Land Use Policy Changes

  • Modest densification of current development (1/3 reduction in lower-density types)
  • Infill of county priority transit-oriented development areas at recommended densities
  • Green infrastructure excluded from development, based on CLIP3.1 first priority areas
  • Expected SLR inundation areas excluded from new development
  • "Proactive" land use rules are the same as Scenario 3

Conservation (strategy + mechanism)

  • 10% fee simple/90% easement
  • Florida Forever targets
  • Financial resources: 57,500 acres/year

Population

  • Same as other scenarios
  • BEBR Medium Trend Population (~2x over 50 years)

Climate Change

  • Same as other scenarios, tracking RCP8.5
  • Sea Level Rise: 1 meter by 2060 (USACE high SLR curve)
  • Vegetation changes as predicted by USGS Transitional Saline Wetlands project.